Perspectives on the 2011 PGA Show and the GIS

Perspectives on the 2011 PGA Show and the GIS

By Stephen Metzger, PhD., Senior Editorial Advisor, IUV Magazine

Both the Professional Golf Association and the Golf Industry Shows were held in a rather cool Orlando this year.  If the climate was not so warm and welcoming outside, the temperature inside the Orange County Convention Center made up for it.  That is to say, the business climate was bright and sunny.

A consistent feature of both these shows is that they provide the opportunity to catch up with colleagues you saw the year before (and the year before that perhaps several times) and exchange information that ranges from frivolous gossip to the signing on of new business.  And the after hours receptions are a great good time.  This marks my sixth pilgrimage to the two shows, so although I am a relative newcomer compared to the old hands that have attended 15 to 20 years or more, I have had a chance to gain some perspective on product and market trends.

Product offerings are refined rather than redefined

A friend of mine vehemently asserted that there just wasn’t anything new at the Shows, and, indeed, hadn’t been anything new in many a year. He was referring to vehicles primarily, but would certainly find contending points of view from Yamaha, which introduced the Drive a couple of years ago; E-Z-GO with its AC-driven RXV line; Tomberlin with its Vanish electric 4X4; and Club Car with its Carryall AC-driven LSV utility vehicles, just to name a few.

Have we seen a blockbuster entry that sets the pace for a rapid broadening of the market and an escalation of sales of the small, task-oriented vehicle?  The answer to that is, no.  Thus, most manufacturers are resting on their laurels for the moment and are eyeing improvements in the economy that will begin to inflate sales and offer clues to the public’s preferences for existing models and features.

To put things in perspective, however, here is what we have seen over the past four-to-five years that have advanced product offerings:

• More models with AC power—it certainly has not taken DC drive trains out of the picture, but has made significant inroads in higher end models;
• Better enclosures—Curtis Industries continues to develop hard cover enclosures for more and more of the higher volume small vehicles—and others are in this market as well. One drawback is that this is still an expensive accessory;
• Refinements in components—automotive glass, better braking systems, single point battery filling systems, solar panels, and a host of upgraded accessories from custom seating, to exotically designed wheels, to custom paint jobs.

As it turns out, none of these improvements and innovations have been revolutionary, but they have resulted in vehicles which are better quality and are better performing.

The potential breakthroughs

Breakthroughs to something that would double the market for small, task-oriented vehicles revolve around at least two technologies and one quasi-political issue.  One of the technologies certainly is power source; that is, an improved battery or an extended range hybrid system.  The second technology is charging systems, complementing the goal of extended range.  Finally, the political issue revolves around the ever growing sense of the confinement of NHTSA’s Rule 500.  Let’s address each of these challenges.

First, can we expect a breakthrough in battery technology, riding the coattails of mainstream automobiles?  We all await the rollout of electric mainstream, on-road vehicles.  We hope and pray, for the sake of energy independence, that the large format, lithium ion batteries function properly and are relatively trouble-free.  John Peter-sen, an outspoken skeptic of forecasts of rapid advances in lithium ion technology quotes the head of the U.S.   Department of Energy:

During his recent presentation at the United nations Climate Change Conference in Cancun, Dr. Steven Chu, the Secretary of Energy, said:

“And what would it take to be competitive? It will take a battery, first that can last for 15 years of deep discharges. You need about five as a minimum, but really six- or seven-times higher storage capacity and you need to bring the price down by about a factor of three. And then all of a sudden you have a comparably performing car; let’s say a mid-sized car which has a comparable acceleration and a comparable range.
"...Now, how soon will that be? Well, we don’t know, but the Department of Energy is supporting a number of very innovative approaches to batteries and it’s not like it’s 10 years off in the future, in my opinion. It might be five years off in the future...   “

When Dr. Chu tells the world that battery manufacturers won’t have a competitive product unless their prices fall into the $300 per kWh range, and A123’s annual earnings release reports that its production costs overshot that goal by a whopping $1,000 per kWh last year, I don’t see a lot of upside potential.
                                --John Petersen, Seeking Alpha, March 7, 2011

Dr. Chu is not very encouraging concerning the time frame and the risks involved.  Thus, the expectation of trickle down battery technology has to be adjusted accordingly.  If the development of electrification of the on-road mainstream automobile is still problematic, the proven value of the small, task-oriented vehicle is not.  In addition to the refinements cited above, there is technology afoot that can extend the range of the STOV and thus equip the vehicles of this class to become more robust in terms of the tasks that can be performed, as well as overall usability. 

Lead acid battery improvements continue to emerge, with several major battery companies, including Trojan, Crown, Fullriver, Interstate and others, all pushing to create a better deep cycle battery—and several of these companies have introduced AGM technology to the deep cycle market.

Potentially even more significant is a perceptible movement toward hybrid power; that is, a combination of battery power and gas-powered generator that charges the battery and/or drives the vehicle.  Hydrive Vehicles exhibited its Rescue Generator™ as a means of extending the range of an electric vehicle.  The product can charge the batteries while the vehicle is being driven.  The company’s Hybrid Genset can be mounted in the bagwell or cargo space of the vehicle and be used to charge the battery—or in combination with the Power-Out Inverter be used as an energy platform to power electric tools and other accessories and appliances. 

Exhibitor HDK vehicles notes that a hybrid drive is available for most of their models, although no other details were available.  Tomberlin has had a generator/hybrid option for several years now, although the company does not strongly promote it. A company called PowerPod Partners recently announced the PowerPod Hybrid retrofit for the E-Z-GO TXT model golf cars. This device reportedly can re-charge the vehicle batteries to 80% in two hours and can simultaneoulsy charge the battery on the move giving the vehicle over 170 miles of travel distance

Notable Products Featured at the PGA and/or Golf Industry Shows

Product/Service	Feature	Impact
John Deere–upgraded ProGator™ 4x4 to accommodate new lift device from Ezy-Lift™	A "toughened-up" ProGator with the Ezy-Lift lifting device, or hoist, installed directly into the vehicle bed, and capable of lifting up to 850 lbs. onto the bed.	Greatly increases the versatility of the ProGator to enable lifting of heavy objects onto vehicle bed.
Yamaha–specially designed security vehicle.	Fully-enclosed with a Curtis cab, including heating and cooling systems, and a range of automotive-type features.	Puts specially-outfitted vehicle in contention for localized security patrol fleets (in some cases replacing conventional vehicles). Representative of speciallydesigned vehicles for a variety of institutional fleet markets.
Tomberlin–Vanish™, an electric 4 X 4	The Vanish LSV is an off-road side-by-side utility/recreational vehicle that is premium quality in almost every respect from a two-speed transmission to fourwheel hydraulic disk brakes.	Sets a standard for electric hunting vehicles and could well become an advanced platform for electric off-road utility vehicles (a potentially larger market).
Fullriver Battery and Trojan Battery	Bringing AGM technology to the deep cycle market.	Prospect of mainstreaming the more expensive AGM technology in the STOV market.
VCTech–AC motor and controller	PC-based programmable controller. (System now used in Fairplay vehicles.)	At an attractive price, could give Advanced Motors & Drives and Hi-Performance considerable competition in the aftermarket.
M & M–soft cab for Club Car	Fabric enclosure over a heavy duty rigid frame with removable doors and panels, plus integrated automotive windshield.	Excellent quality all weather, versatile enclosure at an attractive price. A major upgrade from conventional fabric enclosures.
Cushman–1600XD	Cushman's entry into the heavy duty off road market–a dieselpowered 4 X 4.	Yet another indicator of the growing importance of the offroad, side-by-side, as Cushman moves into non-traditional (for Cushman) markets.

Charging systems complement the range issue by making vehicles readily available for use.  Lester Electrical’s electric vehicle battery charger, EVC 72V/40A is designed to quickly recharge LSVs and industrial and utility vehicles.  The charger  features a 208/240 VAC single-phase input that is field selectable.  It is suitable for charging both flooded lead acid and sealed batteries in opportunity charging applications.  Lester Electrical has been a consistent exhibitor at the GIS for many years.

As to on-board charging systems, Delta-Q Technologies has been providing this component to E-Z-GO vehicles for a number of years.  The company’s QuiQ™ model can be used off-board as well as on-board and incorporates an intelligent microprocessor controller that can store up to 10 optimized charge algorithms, and, with new field reprogrammable chargers, download new algorithms as needed.  QuiQ can take a wide range of input voltages, from 85 to 265 VAC, giving it worldwide usability.

The Confines of Rule 500

NHTSA’s Rule 500, which basically defines the limits of on-road use for small, task-oriented vehicles, was promulgated with a clear focus on safety.  The consistent upgrades of STOVs over the years, however, have put them at the threshold of a new definition.  Hopefully that new, expanded definition will be forthcoming that recognizes the potential of small, task-oriented vehicles.  (After which, let the consumer decide.)  A subcommittee of the Society of Automotive Engineers is currently working on its own redefinition, and this could be the springboard to an “official” recognition of a new class of vehicles by NHTSA, one that would feature a faster, more robust, more versatile vehicle.

Beyond the key technical improvements and a needed new classification, major market gains will come from focusing on important institutional fleet markets, which are in the early stages of rechanneling vehicle investments toward electric power

Gains will come from targeted markets

Targeted markets, such as site security (sites such as industrial parks, warehouse complexes, and college campuses) offer significant areas for development, and it is these areas in which specially designed vehicles are needed.  Yamaha’s fully-enclosed Personal Security Vehicle, which was exhibited at the GIS, is a notable entry suited to this type of market.  The enclosure is hard-shelled and manufactured by Curtis Industries.  The vehicle comes with all the bells and whistles of a security patrol vehicle and includes a heating and cooling system for all weather operation.

The push toward green fleets in both the private sector commercial market and the government market will open up new opportunities for utility vehicle manufacturers.  The General Services Administration is implementing the evolution toward electrification with its Advantage program, an internet-based service featuring product listings and pricing. The significant benefit in the Advantage program lies in the fact that it is an alternative to tedious and time consuming procedures that have typified the government’s formal bidding process.

Another product type that is likely to secure a foothold in the institutional market are small, electric-powered panel and general purpose work trucks.  Mag International, Vantage, and Star’s heavy duty utility vehicle (48U-2) are representative products

Challenges of distribution—a major issue in market growth

There are challenges to market growth from the perspective of product adequacy (and here we are talking about a significant shift in market acceptance), but perhaps even more important in the short term are the challenges involved in realigning distribution systems.  The net result is that dealerships will be broadened to carry a wider range of vehicles (consistent with demographics).  Supportive of this realignment will be more intense and effective use of the internet.

With regard to the internet, the Golf Course Superintendent Association of America sponsored in-depth tutorials during the GIS on the use of internet-based social networks as a marketing tool.  Those wishing more information on the subject should contact the GCSAA.  In my view, much still needs to be done to harness the full power of the internet to drive market expansion. More about this in later columns.

About the Author:


Stephen Metzger, PhD, is Managing Director of International Market Solutions, LLC, an internationally-based market research firm. He is also Principal of International Competitive Assessments, the market research arm of IMS. ICA has produced four major studies of the small, task-oriented vehicle market since 2000.

Mr. Metzger is Senior Editorial Advisor for Industrial Utility Vehicle Magazine.